TONCOIN tanked nearly 70% last year and continued to slide into early 2026, with the price slipping another 26% in Q1 – a move that forced TON Strategy to post a net quarterly loss of over $90 mn.
However, sentiment shifted in Q2 as the token rallied 75% between April and mid-May, more than making up for the prior losses, with a 30% gain YTD.
That said, it is too soon to look for a retracement to the long-term ascending trend.
On the news front, Pavel Durov announced that Telegram will replace the TON Foundation as the primary driving force behind the blockchain, and called on the community to “make TON great again.”
This rhetoric helped push the token’s market cap back to nearly $6 bn, again ranking as a top 20 crypto asset by that metric.
Crypto analysts, however, are flagging that Durov’s announcement potentially opens the door to corporate controls, which would run counter to the ideals of Web3.
On another upbeat note, the TON network has expanded its decentralized infrastructure to over 400 independent validators, making the blockchain more decentralized and, by extension, more resilient to regional disruptions.
Technically, the monthly chart reveals that TONCOIN has staged a rebound and tested the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.82, which aligns with interim resistance.
On the weekly chart, the price action has reached the 200-day MA, which is sloping downward.
The regression channel is also pointing south in line with the bearish trend.
The daily chart shows a corrective move to the downside. The bears are setting their sights on $1.95, and then $1.75.
On the other hand, the regression channel on this timeframe depicts a positive slope, implying that further upside potential remains in play.
The bulls may also attempt to muster a reversal from $2.08, which is roughly consistent with a 50% retracement from the early-May rally.