Solana ETF Launch: SOL’s Path to Recovery After 21% YTD Drop

Solana’s Mixed Performance: April Surge Followed by May Reversal

Solana (SOL) surged 18.5% to USD 147.6 on Binance in April.

The token extended gains in May, flirting with February’s level of USD 187.6, before reversing downward.

SOL has dropped 21% YTD, averaging USD 163.8.

Rex Shares Launches First Solana Staking ETF with Unique Structure

A key development this month was the recent launch of Solana’s first-ever staking ETF by Rex Shares.

This facility essentially enables investors to earn money not only from price gains but also from passive staking rewards.

Opinions on the impact from the ETF impact diverge: some analysts hail its launch as the start of an “altcoin summer,” while others argue that ongoing uncertainties make a significant price boost unlikely.

The procedural story behind the ETF’s launch is also worth noting as REX Shares bypassed the standard 19b-4 registration filing, opting to structure the fund as a C-corporation instead.

Market Sentiment Remains Divided on ETF Impact

That said, there has been little sign of enthusiasm around SOL on Binance so far.

On the other hand, the prospects for this token do not look all negative either.

In our view, SOL may well retrace to an upward trajectory.

Technical Analysis Points to Potential Recovery Targets

In terms of technical analysis, as noted in our March overview, the bulls had a decent shot at staging a rebound toward USD 155.5.

This scenario played out in late April, when the bulls tested and eventually broke out of that level, paving the way for a move toward the next key resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (USD 171.7).

However, the price action failed to dig in above that mark, reversed course, and pulled back below USD 142.5.

Even so, it did not drop to the 200-day MA or revisit its April 7 local lows.

On top of that, the correction nearly brought the price action down to the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at USD 124.5.

As a result, the bulls may still have some runway to push the price action higher.

As of writing, SOL is testing a local trendline (shown in black in the chart below).

If that resistance level is breached, the first upside target would be USD 171.7, while a breakout to the upside could open the door to USD 195.3.