Trump’s Crypto Policies Drive Bitcoin Volatility Between 90-107K
Recent Regulatory Impact on Bitcoin Markets
BTC/USD has seen heightened volatility as Bitcoin reacts to recent regulatory announcements from the Trump administration.
After the presidential inauguration ceremony, the crypto bulls tried but failed to break firmly above the $107,000 resistance line.
Trump Administration’s Cryptocurrency Initiatives
Longer-term, the outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain. President Trump ordered the establishment of a cryptocurrency working group tasked with proposing new digital asset regulations and exploring the creation of a national cryptocurrency reserve.
However, the lack of details let down the crypto market, preventing BTC/USD from reaching new highs.
Trade Policy Effects on BTC/USD
Over the weekend, Trump slapped tariffs imports from Mexico, Canada, and China.
This move prompted investors to pile into the dollar and out of Bitcoin. Trump then paused the implementation of tariffs following talks with the leaders of Mexico and Canada, which lent support to crypto market sentiment and helped the token stay afloat above $90k.
A highly volatile environment persists because traders are using margin lending, among other reasons.
As regards expert commentary, if Bitcoin drops below the key $90k support level again, forced or panic selling could invite even steeper declines, according to Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick.
The crypto shakeout may be a healthy pullback, ridding the market of excessive speculation that has built up over the past eight months, Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, told Business Insider.
While we generally concur with this view, one is left to wonder at what level such a pullback could start.
Technical Analysis: Range-Bound Trading
From the standpoint of technical analysis, we initially priced in a head-and-shoulders pattern that could be followed by a leg down toward the 200-day MA.
As noted in our previous overview, the likelihood of that scenario has decreased. At this point, we argue that this forecast is no longer in play, since neither the pullback nor the head-and-shoulders pattern materialized.
BTC clearly consolidated within a relatively wide range of $92k-$107k from H2 2024 to early 2025. We earlier wrote that Bitcoin traded within the $90-100k range, but now technical conditions have changed.
Wave Analysis and Price Projections
In terms of wave analysis, the formation of a fourth corrective wave, a flat trend, appears to be coming into play.
That said, the fourth wave could end within the $90-92k range and the scope of the wave (if our calculations for the first and second waves are correct) could be roughly 38.2% of the third wave, which, in our view, looks like an acceptable metric.
Under this scenario, BTC should break out to the upside, so the formation of a fifth impulse wave could get under way.
According to the standard playbook, it cannot be longer than the third wave, so before a correction the impulse could end within the $130-135k range.
Alternative Scenarios and Market Outlook
There is an alternative scenario, which is also bullish. We assume that the waves were calculated incorrectly and what was construed as the fourth wave and a flat trend are in fact still part of the third wave.
This means that the fourth wave could start to form and take the price action lower. That said, going forward we expect BTC to trend higher in any case.
This means we reject the earlier head-and-shoulder pattern, although we do not rule out a correction, which Matt Mena flagged in his interview. This scenario will pan out if BTC breaks out of support and holds below $92k.
