HYPE Token Outlook 2025: Rally, Correction, and Key Risks

Market Performance: From Explosive Rally to Q4 Pullback

The HYPE token shot up over 200% in Q2 2025, gained roughly 14% in Q3, but reversed lower in Q4 and is currently on track to end this quarter in the red.

The token is still up more than 40% YTD.

Fundamental Drivers: Perps Launch and New Trading Segments

In terms of fundamentals, the key development was the launch of perpetual contracts (as noted previously in one of our overviews), resulting in an increase of daily trading volumes to over $500 mn.

According to project updates, developers introduced three segments: xyz – geared towards equity indices and highly traded stocks, flx – focused on equities and alternative assets, and vnti – an innovative segment enabling trades in pre-IPO equities.

Token Unlock Risks: Why November 29 Matters

On November 29, tokens worth more than $300 mn are scheduled to unlock, which could trigger selling pressure – a risk highlighted by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.

Technical Picture: Key Fibonacci Levels and Trend Signals

Technically, HYPE is trading in correction mode. The price action broke below the 200-day MA as well as several key trendlines.

The token slipped beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $47.57, retreated to the 38.2% line at $40.3, and then pushed lower.

It subsequently breached the 200-day MA at $38.5, falling past 50% retracement.

Under heavy selling pressure, the price action approached the interim threshold at $30.64, rebounded and retraced toward the regression line, while maintaining a downward bias.

Under the bearish scenario, the next target could be $28.45 – the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a horizontal support line.

If this key target breaks down as well, the reversal that started in September would turn from a correction into a new local bearish trend.