HYPE Price Outlook: Unlock Impact and Key Supports

FY2025 Slowdown and Q4 Breakdown

The HYPE token eked out 6% growth in FY 2025, marking a sharp deceleration relative to the prior year.

Q4 2025 was the weakest quarter: the price action dropped over 43%, wiping out the gains seen in Q3 and some of Q2.

HYPE is now attempting to regain upward momentum, albeit with mixed traction – a 22% rise in January 2026 was followed by a pullback in February, with the token effectively lapsing into mild consolidation.

December Unlock: Supply Dynamics and OTC Flow

HYPE had an unlock event on December 29, 2025, creating a downward drag on the token, as noted in our previous overview.

Overall, 1.75 mn tokens were unlocked, equivalent to 3.7% of circulating supply and less than 0.2% of total supply.

Approximately 23% of the unlocked tokens were transferred to Flowdesk for subsequent OTC sales.

Around 42% was re-locked through restaking, while the remaining 35% stayed in project participants’ wallets without movement.

As a result, the market reaction was relatively muted, and HYPE continued to trend lower.

Technical Levels: MA Rejection and Bearish Structure

Technically, our prior HYPE overview flagged the risk of a decline toward USD 28.45 and then a breakdown of that mark, which would have confirmed a local bearish trend.

The price action did eventually slide below, then rebounded and tested the 200-day MA, but failed to secure a foothold at higher levels.

The bears remain in command for the time being. Support lies between USD 20.5 and USD 22.2, or more immediately, at around USD 25.6.

The HYPE curve has turned north at the time of writing and is forming a classic bearish pennant pattern.