Hedera (HBAR) Outlook: Key Levels and Market Drivers

HBAR Performance: Volatile Swings Since 2019

Hedera is the token of the Hedera Hashgraph project, launched in 2019 as a platform for decentralized services.

Since its initial offering, the cryptocurrency’s price (HBAR) has made highs and lows.

The price action dropped sharply from November 2021 to October 2024, reversed higher in Q4 2024 and gained over 200% on the year, before trending lower again in 2025.

HBAR has tumbled nearly 45% on the Binance exchange YTD. The cryptocurrency printed its steepest decline in February and March (-54% combined), while showing the strongest gain in July (+66.3% on the month), which nearly offset the downturn over the second half of Q1 and Q2 2025.

In November, the token has been in decline as well, down 25.7% MTD.

Market Context: State Network Initiative

In recent crypto market news, the spotlight is on the State Network initiative, pitched by the Digital Chamber and aimed at shaping cryptocurrency policy at the government level.

Essentially, this expands cryptocurrency lobbying and backing for crypto-oriented politicians in the US 2026 midterm elections.

Hedera is a co-founder of the initiative, which experts believe could be price-supportive for the token.

Technical Setup: Key Resistance and Support

From the standpoint of technical analysis, the weekly chart shows HBAR trading near the 200-day MA at USD 0.1435, while the regression channel points upward.

In our view, a reversal and resumption of gains could be in the cards, but the price action first needs to confirm such a move by breaking above the USD 0.1770 mark (23.6% Fibonacci retracement).

Under this scenario, HBAR is likely to retrace toward the recent local high at USD 0.22.

Otherwise, If the price action falls below the 200-day MA, strong support lies at USD 0.1262, followed by the lower bound of the regression channel at USD 0.1115.