Ethereum Outlook 2025: Pullback or Trend Reversal?
Ethereum Performance: Big Picture vs Short-Term Weakness
Ethereum (ETH) has plummeted nearly 20% since the start of Q4, while trading 46% above early-January levels.
The token still looks set to print solid gains for full-year 2025 unless a black swan event occurs in the interim.
Institutional Catalysts: BlackRock, Robinhood, and Tokenization
As regards the recent news flow, one notable development is BlackRock’s filing for the iShares Ethereum Staking Trust, which would enable investors to earn staking income on ETH.
Analysts believe this move will boost institutional inflows. Additionally, staking was launched on the Robinhood platform.
Market sentiment also improved after SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said in a Fox Business interview that the agency continues to push toward tokenization of real-world assets, a development that could make Ethereum one of the main beneficiaries.
Technical Setup: Key Levels and Trend Structure
In terms of technical analysis, our previous forecast for an extension of Ethereum’s recent uptrend toward a longer-term target of USD 4,700 did not materialize.
To recap, the price action broke above the 200-day MA at USD 3,600, then reversed, retested the same level as resistance, dropped lower, and then moved back toward the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at USD 2,750.
Notably, since the bears failed to take out that level, the downward move that got underway on July 24 still looks like a pullback after the broader rally from April 9 to July 23.
In other words, the medium-term upward trend remains intact.
Scenarios Ahead: Bounce, Breakdown, or Trend Continuation
However, the price action is closing in on the 200-day MA at USD 3,460 from below, which could be an inflexion point.
A breakout above this immediate resistance – a seemingly unlikely case at this stage – would point to a short-term trend reversal to the upside.
Under a the more plausible scenario, ETH could bounce off USD 3,460 and fall back toward the USD 2,750 support level.
A decline below that line would signal the onset of a medium-term bearish trend.
Either way, investors are advised to act when the price curve actually shifts direction, with one potential confirmation being a breakdown of USD 3,200 followed by consolidation at lower levels.
