Bitcoin Slides 24% in Q4: Elliott Wave Outlook

November Sell-Off and Q4 Bitcoin Losses

November turned out to be extremely bearish for Bitcoin. The price plunged over 17%.

The token fared worse only in February 2025 when it plummeted almost 18%.

BTC has slid 24% since the beginning of Q4, erasing all gains logged in Q2 and Q3 and falling below the opening price at the outset of the year.

Capital Outflows and Pressure from ETF Redemptions

Experts pointed to an ongoing outflow of funds from cryptocurrencies and investors’ allocation to metals is seen growing as precious metals grew at a faster pace in late December.

Crypto ETFs have suffered a net outflow over the past few days.

Options Expiry Risk: $27B on Deribit

BTC and ETH options worth USD 27 bn, a substantial amount, are set to expire on Deribit on Friday.

The expiration will cover over half of Deribit’s open interest, and experts maintain that this event could impact crypto prices.

Elliott Wave Scenario and Key Price Levels

From a technical standpoint, as before, we propose assessing market conditions by using classical wave analysis.

As more accurate assessment is currently possible, we forecast the following scenario: the 3rd wave ended at around $121. 5k.

That said, if January 2020 is taken as a starting point, the length of the 3rd wave equaled 161.8% of the first wave, squarely in line with the rule of lengthiness.

In this case, the correction, which we have seen throughout Q4 2025, could be the 4th correction wave as part of the same impulse.

One of Elliot Wave Theory’s rule is that of sequence, meaning the structure of the 4th wave should differ from the structure of the 2nd wave.

It is difficult to say anything specific in this regard. The main rule is that the 4th wave cannot be in the area of the 1st wave.

In other words, in case of further losses the price cannot drop below $65-70k.

therwise, our calculation is most likely inaccurate and we see the 4th wave.

The $70.6k mark means a correction of 50% from the gains seen from January 2023 until October 2025.

Meanwhile, currently investors see that the price has declined around 38.2% from the 3rd wave we indicated.

The conclusion is as follows: a breakout of $80.5k to the downside will, in all likelihood, mean a return to $65-70.5k or the end of correction and a rebound.

However, it will be possible to confirm this impulse only if the token breaks out of $121.5k to the upside.

In our view, BTC looks moderately upbeat. For the time being, we expect Bitcoin to extend gains.