Bitcoin Price Outlook: Can BTC Reach $100K in Q3?

Why Bitcoin Rebounded in Q3

Bitcoin closed 14% lower in Q2 2026, showing the third consecutive quarter of losses. BTC is down almost 11% YTD. Meanwhile, Q3 saw the emergence of an uptrend, with three months of losses pared back by the time of writing.

Treasury Buybacks Weaken Yields and the Dollar

The following developments exerted a positive impact on BTC:

• Statement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the US government doubled long-term UST buybacks

Last week, Bessent announced that Washington will double the amount of repurchase operations for securities maturing in 10-30 years.

The program is expected to be expanded effective September 9. Under the initial plan, the Treasury intended to buy back USD 14 bn of securities between September 9 and November 4.

This means that the amount will double, accordingly. Bessent’s statement immediately dragged down UST yields and the dollar.

Short Squeeze Accelerates Bitcoin’s Breakout

This gave a boost to precious metals and cryptocurrencies.

• Short-Squeeze

As the token spent a long time within the $58k-67k range, a breakout to the upside after Bessent’s statement likely prompted investors to slash short positions, accelerating the rally.

This is a classic example of the market rule according to which the longer the price consolidates, the more explosive the breakout will be.

As a matter of fact, the market acted like a coiled spring, which released as soon as the dollar weakened.

Crypto Legislation Adds a Bullish Catalyst

Another positive catalyst was President Trump’s call for the passage of a “fair version” of the Clarity Act after meeting with crypto industry executives at the White House. The Clarity Act is a proposed bill to regulate digital assets, outlining which tokens are subject to SEC oversight and which fall under CFTC jurisdiction.

If enacted, it could help reduce institutional risks in the crypto market and act as a support factor.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index on Binance is currently in the greed zone, although it stood in neutral territory a week ago.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook: $85K and $100K in Focus

From a technical standpoint, market conditions improved for the bulls. We are seeing a reversal and robust gains toward the next target range of $84-85k.

According to classic Elliott Wave analysis, which has guided our market view, the fourth corrective wave is now complete, and a final impulsive fifth wave is starting to emerge.

A breakout to $100k would validate this scenario.