Bitcoin Outlook: Downtrend Risks vs Rebound Scenarios

Recent Price Action: A Tough October and November

Bitcoin shed 4% in October, extending the downturn into November.

The token has dropped nearly 7% MTD in the worst month so far since February 2025.

The price action sank below $100K for the first time in a long while on November 4 when, according to Bloomberg, the market saw long-term holders selling around 400,000 coins valued at USD 45 bn.

Market Positioning: Selling Pressure and Weak Inflows

The media outlet reports that open interest in Bitcoin futures currently stands at USD 68 bn, considerably lower than in the previous month.

The net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs stood at just $1 mn as of November 10.

In political news, US lawmakers’ actions aimed at ending the federal government shutdown remain in the spotlight.

Going forward, the outlook for Bitcoin is ambivalent, with some experts expecting the downturn to gain traction, while others are betting on a rebound.

Key Levels That Define the Road Ahead

In our view, investors should play it by ear with several potential scenarios in sight.

It would make sense to jump into the market if and when the BTC price confirms one of the actionable patterns.

Our previous overview outlined two possible scenarios for the flagship crypto currency.

The upbeat scenario called for a breakout at $121.5k and a solid move higher, which would have opened the door to $142k.

A bearish corrective scenario – the one that eventually materialized – saw the bulls failing to take out that key resistance line.

Bullish vs Bearish Scenarios: What Matters Now

At this point, it is too soon to say the impulse bull wave has fully played itself out, erasing the prospect for Bitcoin to retrace to an upward trajectory.

Such a trend reversal would be confirmed only if the price action drops and consolidates below $92k.

On the other hand, there have been no strong attempts to push the price action above $121.5k.

Despite lingering uncertainty, Bitcoin continues to trade within a broader ascending channel, meaning that the token is more likely to retrace to the upside rather than extend the recent downturn.

We expect more clarity on Bitcoin’s near-term outlook as the year draws to a close.