AAVE Price Outlook: Key Levels After KelpDAO Shock

AAVE Extends Its Downtrend

The AAVE crypto token currently trades at USD 95.5 on Coinbase. To recap, the price dropped over 50% in FY 2025 and has been trending lower for the eighth consecutive month, including a 34% decline YTD.

KelpDAO Hack and Aave Liquidity Pressure

Crypto experts point to a key event – the hack of the KelpDAO protocol, which had significant repercussions for the Aave ecosystem.

Reports indicate that the system lost assets worth hundreds of millions in dollar terms and faced a large-scale liquidity outflow – a setback, which required recapitalization, restoration of rsETH support, and coordination among major market players.

As a result, the Aave platform raised around 90,000 ETH (over USD 207 mn) to cover bad debt.

The main contributors were Mantle and Aave DAO.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Technically, the token may find support in the USD 70-75 range. In the event of an upside reversal, the bulls will likely attempt to push the price back towards USD 156.5, where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level lies.

A breakout above that line would open the door towards USD 180 – the 200-day MA.

Medium-Term Reversal Scenario

Despite the bearish momentum seen last year and in Q1 2026, the weekly timeframe still shows a positive slope in the regression channel, implying the odds of a medium-term upside reversal.

That said, we would recommend scaling into long positions only if and when such a reversal is confirmed.